Should the UK change its mind and not leave the EU, then life would go on much as before, or would it? Would the fact that we nearly left the EU trigger the reforms that we sought or would there be the usual Brussels compromise which actually achieves little? Well there are signs that there are real changes planned. As in all things EU this will take a long time but the shock of the UK leaving will make them all think more carefully about things. However, the way the Eurocrats have handled the recent lurch to the extreme right in several East European states is not encouraging. The total lack of action from Brussels over the Catalonian declaration of independence was not good, particularly given their earlier comments and interference with the Scottish referendum debate. There is a very fundamental point in all this which is almost impossible to forecast. If the UK stays in the EU, or re-joins, will it still be a reluctant member? A grumpy nation sidelined in most things and a reluctant participant in group activities? Or will it join in and become a force for European integration. A member of the Eurozone, a leader in the movement to a United States of Europe, a founder member of the nascent European Armed forces, a driver for a formal EU constitution and directly elected ministers with real federal powers. A real integrated Europe with respect and clout in the world, of which we are just one of the member states. No longer a world power but a small European state with some lovely old buildings, rather like all the others. Who knows, but if we were to stay in the EU this is what must happen. The monarchy can stay but it will only be a tourist attraction as EU integration will remove whatever vestigial powers the House of Windsor still holds. The EU needs to come clean with the populations and declare its hand. What they want is a fully integrated USE with direct elections and pan-European powers. Will the populations give them that? Yes, but only if there is political vision and leadership across Europe. With the exception of Germany that has sadly been lacking for generations throughout continental Europe and particularly since the end of World War II. If we were to continue as the Grumpy, Non-co-operative Island then we will continue to drift, lose our seat at the UN Security Council and decline in standing around the world. These things will happen anyway because as a member of the EU we will become more and more absorbed by the organisation and should not seek to retain powers and influence which do not fit with an integrated country. The world will not wait for us to decide which course to take. The reality is that to continue within the EU as we have done for the last 30 or 40 years will simply lead to us being the man in the corner whom everybody ignores whilst they get on with running things. If we stay then we must lead. In addition the EU has to decide what it wants to be: a collection of sovereign nations linked by treaties and economic and monetary co-operation or a single sovereign state with a central, federal government, with member states with delegated rights, using a single currency, similar to the USA, and make no mistake, that is where the EU is headed whether we like it or not. If we are in the EU then we must be involved and lead this process for only when this decision is made will the EU be able to take its proper place on the world stage. It is a process that the UK can and should lead. We have the knowledge and skills to lead Europe, but only if we stop being inward-looking and isolated.
So……….but that isn’t going to happen as we are leaving, aren’t we…..?
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