Well, (for the sake of this discussion) it is done and we are now outside the European Union, having left following the referendum of June 2016 and the subsequent negotiating process. We are now a free and sovereign state owing allegiance to no one and an independent member of many international bodies, such as NATO, the UN etc., in our own right. However, as I write this, neither I nor anyone else will have any way of knowing what sort deal has been arrived at with the EU. It is quite likely that no agreement will be made. The EU has seemed quite keen to extract the maximum amount of humiliation for the UK from the situation and have indulged in their usual brinkmanship. In many ways, a “no deal” deal would be the best for the UK, in others not so good. It largely depends on your point of view.
Historically, Britain has thrived when it has stood alone. The ability to make and effect its own laws, rules and regulations seems to fit well with the people and the way they do business, or at least it has done for the last two thousand or so years. There is no real reason why that should not be so in the future, given the current ethnic mix of the commercial world. The freewheeling business community has always been able to cut a deal and make a margin when left to its own resources. This is especially true now that it is unencumbered by the stifling bureaucracy of the EU. Make no mistake the bureaucracy of Brussels is stifling, as any small business dealing with it will tell you. The British ability to trade in a wide variety of goods and make a margin on that trade has always been the envy of the rest of Europe, even going back to pre- Norman times. It was one of the main reasons why William of Normandy was so anxious to take possession of this island. It is also part of the reason that the EU Commission has been so desperate to prevent the City of London once again becoming the financial powerhouse of Europe, and beyond.
However, it is important to understand that growth in the economy will not happen immediately it is released from the EU, but it will happen. There is a whole world out there and, despite what the doom-merchants say, trade with the EU will not stop over-night. After all, the hard facts of the matter are that they have a much bigger trade imbalance with us than we with them. Does anyone really think that, for example, the EU will block the export of VW and BMW cars to the UK, as has been suggested? If they do then they do not live in the real world.
At this point, it is perhaps worth remembering that the UK economy is the 5th largest in the world. Just behind Germany, who in turn is behind only Japan, China and the US. We are ahead of France, India, Italy and Brazil. The UK has a GDP of just under US$2.7 trillion per year. To put that in perspective, that is more than Australia and Russia combined.** However anyone likes to belittle us, we are not a nondescript little island lost in the cold mists of the North Atlantic; we are a global economic powerhouse – really!
It will, however, most likely take five to ten years before there is any discernible change in the economy. During this period those who had wished to remain in the EU will make every effort to try and show that things are not working and that we should re-join. The EU bureaucrats will most likely aid those who think in that way, but ultimately the freedom of trade will allow the British economy to grow faster than those still within the EU.
Much has been made of the freedom that the UK now has to negotiate trade deals with countries or trading blocs around the world. Despite the rhetoric from the hard pro-Brexit groupings, trade deals do take a while to negotiate. They are highly complex and not simply a case of agreeing with a particular country that their stuff can come in free-of-charge. A quick look at the HMRC Tariff Book will show anyone just how complicated it really is. But of course, deals can and will be done. It will take a while, but we will get there.
Whatever happens now we can no longer blame others. The future is now in our own hands. Let us hope and pray that we have political leaders who are up to the job of forging a new place in the world for this United Kingdom.
[** Figure from official IMF and World Bank sources]
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